捡

没人，风吧凉了

水货+1

SH, 95, 2019051600, , BEST, 0, 80S, 1710E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

2018-2019南太最后的希望!

95P INVEST 190516 0000 8.0S 171.0E SHEM 15 0

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S
171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 160234Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL REGION OF FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLY WARM (28-
30C) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 95P WILL CONTINUE CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, ECMWF SHOWS 95P BEING SHORT LIVED AND QUASI-
STATIONARY, WHILE ALL OTHERS PREDICT A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

95P？95S？

补报
SH, 95, 2019051506, , BEST, 0, 71S, 1706E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 95, 2019051512, , BEST, 0, 75S, 1709E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 95, 2019051518, , BEST, 0, 78S, 1712E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 95, 2019051600, , BEST, 0, 80S, 1715E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

JTWC评级图更正，95S改为95P

SH, 95, 2019051606, , BEST, 0, 83S, 1721E, 20, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 45, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

FMS并不想理睬95P,3 Day TC Outlook上还是4月30日的展望
TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time: 0400 UTC Monday 29th April 2019.
Next Issue: 0400 UTC Fri 01st November 2019 unless a significant tropical
disturbance develops.
Issued by: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, and Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones: Nil.
Likelihood of Tropical Cyclone formation in the region till 30th April 2019
Tuesday 30th April 2019
The potential for formation of a Tropical Cyclone in the region is VERY LOW.