level 9
Oziter
楼主
Stocks make new highs in the US and currency trading volume sees record volumes on Scottish volatility. CLS recorded over 2,000,000 trades for a face value of 10,100,000,000,000! That is a bloody lot of zeros you say. Yes, 12 in fact, as the value was 10.1 trillion. Brokers around the world are cheering! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/independence-minded-scots-reinvigorate-currency-trading.html.
Commodities take a new slide south as US assets (bonds and stocks) continue to attract investor flow. The pound also bounced, most against the euro, as the skittish Scots are seen to stay in the union and the risk hedge is unwound.
The FOMC produced little surprise. No change to its stance and the QE3 is now down to $15B/mth and will cease altogether in October. What was jumped on was the expectations of interest rates. The average expected rate (by the voting members of the Fed) rose slightly for 2015. This saw some moves in the bond market which by natural progression saw greenbacks rise too. Overnight wasn’t so strong for the dollar as most pairs, apart from Yen, won the arm wrestle.
The SNB is one to watch. They maintained the EURCHF floor of 1.2 but are concerned with disinflation. They mentioned being more aggressive, being negative interest rates. However with the success of the currency floor and the fact that they mentioned it the most I would not be surprised if they raise that floor to perhaps 1.5. Heard it here first so keep an eye on the Swissy and the SNB.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Canadian CPI & Wholesale sales
AUDUSD – Has made a LHLL with divergence. A sign that the immediate selling pressure is abating. Not enough buying interest to warrant trading it higher, and in fact you wouldn’t want to get caught holding long positions for too long. Expect some bounce but maintain a sell bias and look for shorting opportunities.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9200/9085/8900
EURUSD – Also has LHLL and divergence. Again I would be holding longs for long. With the Eurozone under continued stagnation pressures and looking at lowering rates/stimulation measures whilst the US is quitting QE and raising rates, this has further to slide. Even the UK (once the Scots get off the wall and settled down again) are looking to raise rates. Maintain sell bias and short trades is more lucrative.
Resistance: 13500/13650/13890/14050
Support: 12860/12750
GBPUSD – Has pushed through 1.63 and held it well. Right now it is in the middle of nowhere though, so will monitor and look for best options once the wild men of the north are back in the fold, or not.
Resistance: 1.7183/1.731.7370
Support: 1.63
NZDUSD – Now there is divergence. The election is this weekend and only 1 day of buying so would stay out until early next week anyway. But signs of a bounce are there.
Resistance: 8745/8842
Support: 8150/8090
USDCAD – Interesting and hard to read. Is it in a range (1.08-1.11) or is it trending and making HH’s in each cycle? Tough call. With the battle between the American currencies hard to read I would prefer to buy the Loonie against other pairs. It is obviously strong, but perhaps not strong enough to maintain a trend against the greenback.
Resistance: 10950/1.1050
Support: 10683/10655/10486
USDJPY – Greenback strength and BOJ weakening the yen equals one way traffic and it’s hard to jump aboard a speeding bullet train.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.30/100.62/100/99.80
2014年09月20日 13点09分
1
Commodities take a new slide south as US assets (bonds and stocks) continue to attract investor flow. The pound also bounced, most against the euro, as the skittish Scots are seen to stay in the union and the risk hedge is unwound.
The FOMC produced little surprise. No change to its stance and the QE3 is now down to $15B/mth and will cease altogether in October. What was jumped on was the expectations of interest rates. The average expected rate (by the voting members of the Fed) rose slightly for 2015. This saw some moves in the bond market which by natural progression saw greenbacks rise too. Overnight wasn’t so strong for the dollar as most pairs, apart from Yen, won the arm wrestle.
The SNB is one to watch. They maintained the EURCHF floor of 1.2 but are concerned with disinflation. They mentioned being more aggressive, being negative interest rates. However with the success of the currency floor and the fact that they mentioned it the most I would not be surprised if they raise that floor to perhaps 1.5. Heard it here first so keep an eye on the Swissy and the SNB.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Canadian CPI & Wholesale sales
AUDUSD – Has made a LHLL with divergence. A sign that the immediate selling pressure is abating. Not enough buying interest to warrant trading it higher, and in fact you wouldn’t want to get caught holding long positions for too long. Expect some bounce but maintain a sell bias and look for shorting opportunities.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9200/9085/8900
EURUSD – Also has LHLL and divergence. Again I would be holding longs for long. With the Eurozone under continued stagnation pressures and looking at lowering rates/stimulation measures whilst the US is quitting QE and raising rates, this has further to slide. Even the UK (once the Scots get off the wall and settled down again) are looking to raise rates. Maintain sell bias and short trades is more lucrative.
Resistance: 13500/13650/13890/14050
Support: 12860/12750
GBPUSD – Has pushed through 1.63 and held it well. Right now it is in the middle of nowhere though, so will monitor and look for best options once the wild men of the north are back in the fold, or not.
Resistance: 1.7183/1.731.7370
Support: 1.63
NZDUSD – Now there is divergence. The election is this weekend and only 1 day of buying so would stay out until early next week anyway. But signs of a bounce are there.
Resistance: 8745/8842
Support: 8150/8090
USDCAD – Interesting and hard to read. Is it in a range (1.08-1.11) or is it trending and making HH’s in each cycle? Tough call. With the battle between the American currencies hard to read I would prefer to buy the Loonie against other pairs. It is obviously strong, but perhaps not strong enough to maintain a trend against the greenback.
Resistance: 10950/1.1050
Support: 10683/10655/10486
USDJPY – Greenback strength and BOJ weakening the yen equals one way traffic and it’s hard to jump aboard a speeding bullet train.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.30/100.62/100/99.80