AL, 95, 2020102306, , BEST, 0, 188N, 813W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 061, SPAWNINVEST, al782020 to al952020,

。

数值的纽约大飓风？

A broad trough of low pressure, located over the western Caribbean
Sea, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly
east of the trough. Surface observations, satellite-derived surface
wind data, and radar data indicate that a low pressure system has
developed along the trough axis just south of Grand Cayman Island.
Some gradual development of the low is possible during the next few
days while it moves northwestward to northward across western or
central Cuba on Saturday, then turning northward to northeastward
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and the
central Bahamas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba,
South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

很早之前GFS就预报的大饼，但现在已经不支持发展

海温29，辐合10，辐散30，风切微弱

1. A broad area of low pressure located near Grand Cayman Island is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms mainly east and south of the center. This system has become much better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low moves slowly toward the northwest. This system is now anticipated to move near western Cuba this weekend and move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

95L INVEST 201023 1200 19.0N 81.6W ATL 25 1008

95L INVEST 201023 1200 19.0N 81.6W ATL 25 1008

连HWRF都奶不动了，巅峰1001

1. Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Blake/Papin

95L INVEST 201023 1800 19.4N 81.9W ATL 25 1007