TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 182018 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 178.3E
AT 181800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD12F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED UNDER SUPPOSED LLCC AND PRIMARY BAND TRYING
TO WARP ONTO LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HIGH SHEAR LIES TO THE
SOUTH WITH DRY AIR. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.5 WRAP, YIELDS DT=2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 12.5S 177.2E MOVING WSW AT 06KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 12.9S 177.6E MOVING SW AT 03KT WITH
30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 13.3S 177.7E MOVING SSW AT 02KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 14.8S 177.7E MOVING SSW AT 03KT WITH
30KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

FMS预报不命名

这张云图有点

SH, 95, 2019051818, , BEST, 0, 108S, 1769E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 95, 2019051900, , BEST, 0, 116S, 1774E, 25, 1008, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

SH, 95, 2019051906, , BEST, 0, 122S, 1773E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Cancellation

WTPS21 PGTW 191230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181221ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 181230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 177.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 176.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
190938Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAKENED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 20-25
KNOT WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DISPLACED IN THE EAST UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW TO
MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAKENING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE. NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS ARE NO LONGER INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM AND ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT ON TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST
FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THIS CANCELS REF A
//
NNNN

95P这是回去了？

SH, 95, 2019051912, , BEST, 0, 119S, 1768E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

30kt，对流被切离

SH, 95, 2019051918, , BEST, 0, 122S, 1770E, 25, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 95, 2019052000, , BEST, 0, 123S, 1771E, 25, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

SH, 95, 2019052006, , BEST, 0, 122S, 1770E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ABPW10 PGTW 201400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201400Z-210600ZMAY2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 177.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 176.9E, APPROXIMATELY
329 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200901Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WAVE-LIKE
FEATURE WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 95P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM STAYING QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
(3) JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1)
TO LOW
NNNN

SH, 95, 2019052012, , BEST, 0, 115S, 1771E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 95, 2019052018, , BEST, 0, 111S, 1772E, 25, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 35, 0, 0, P, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
177.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.