Buttonwood
Are you a stock or a bond?
Why the ideal portfolio depends on the business you are in
梧桐
你该买股票还是债券？
为什么理想的投资组合取决于你在什么行业

全文打印·今日头条https://www.toutiao.com/i6607408980060799491/

IMAGINE two college friends whose careers have taken different paths. Simon is an investment banker. He works long hours, especially when his bank is advising on a big merger. His pastimes include potholing and skydiving. Chris works as a senior civil servant. Early each evening the lights in his office dim to remind his colleagues of the importance of work-life balance. His spare time is spent on long country walks, playing golf and going to the theatre. 想象一下两名大学里的友人后来走上了不同的职业道路。西蒙是一位投资银行家。他的工作时间很长，尤其是当他任职的银行为一桩大规模合并交易提供咨询时。他的消遣包括洞穴探险和跳伞。克里斯是一名高级公务员。每天傍晚他办公室的灯光早早就暗了，提醒他的同事们保持工作与生活平衡的重要性。他的业余时间花在乡间远足、打高尔夫球和看演出上。

How should they invest their money? More specifically, how much of their savings should go to bonds and how much to shares? Textbook theory says it depends on how tolerant Simon and Chris are towards risk. If either can bear the sometimes violent ups-and-downs of stockmarkets, he should hold more shares, which have higher rewards to go with the extra risk. Should such price swings keep him awake at night with worry, he should tilt the mix of his investments towards safer government bonds. 他们该如何投资自己的钱？说得再具体一点，他们的积蓄有多少该投资债券，有多少该投资股票？教科书上的理论说，这取决于西蒙和克里斯对风险的承受能力。谁能承受股市时不时的剧烈涨跌，谁就应该持有更多股票。因为股票风险更大，回报也更高。这种价格波动让谁忧心忡忡、夜不能寐，谁就应该将投资组合转向更安全的政府债券。

A risk-lover such as Simon is happy to own mostly shares. If you think skydiving is fun, you probably will not lose sleep if the value of your portfolio goes down from time to time. By the same logic Chris, who prefers a quiet life, is content to hold a bigger slug of bonds than Simon. Yet on a broader reckoning, both friends would be better advised to go against their inclinations. Simon, the banker, should buy mostly bonds. Chris, the bureaucrat, should buy mostly stocks. 像西蒙这样喜欢冒险的人乐于把大部分投资都放在股票上。如果你认为跳伞很有趣，那么当你的投资组合时有贬值时，你可能不会失眠。按照同样的逻辑，喜欢平静生活的克里斯会对持有比西蒙更高比例的债券感到满意。但是，如若考虑得更周全一些，这两位朋友最好还是按和自己的意愿相反的方向行事。银行家西蒙应该主要购买债券，政府官员克里斯应主要买股票。

If that seems paradoxical, consider the nature of each friend’s line of work. Simon’s professional fortunes are tied to the stockmarket. When share prices are booming, the general appetite for business risk is high. Investment projects are approved. Deals are done. The demand for the services of investment banks is strong. Simon’s bank makes pots of money and his bonus surges. His fortunes are changeable, though. When the stockmarket is down, the bank’s profits plunge. So his returns are high, but also volatile—like a stock. To hedge against the stock-like returns of his occupation, Simon should own bonds. In contrast, Chris enjoys a bond-like career. His salary is lower but steadier. His job is not at risk in downturns. So he can afford to take bigger risks with his investments. He should own stocks. 如果这看起来很矛盾，想一想他们各自的工作性质吧。西蒙的职业运势与股市息息相关。当股价上涨时，人们普遍偏好高商业风险。他们批准投资项目，敲定交易。对投资银行服务的需求强劲。西蒙的银行赚得盆满钵满，他自己赚得的奖金也飙升。但是他的财运也有变数。当股市下跌，银行的利润也会暴跌。所以他的回报虽然很高，但也像股票一样波动很大。为了对冲如股票般的工作回报，西蒙应该持有债券。相比之下，克里斯的工作就像债券。他的工资不高，但比较稳定。他的工作在经济衰退中没有风险。所以他承担得起更大的投资风险。他应该持有股票。

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