货币政策
王朝均衡
中国对利率体系进行现代化改造，引证了秦始皇的手段
Chinese mo
neta
ry policy
Dynastic equilibrium
Citing an ancient emperor, China modernises its interest-rate system

QIN SHIHUANG was the emperor who first unified China, through bloody conquest more than two millennia ago. Known for starting the Great Wall and burying scholars alive, he has a new claim to fame: the central bank has drawn on his construction of a national road system to help explain its new monetary system. In a report on August 11th, the People’s Bank of China seized on an idiom derived from his road-building experience: it had “shaved off mountain peaks and filled valleys” in managing liquidity.两千多年前，经过血腥的征战，秦始皇成了历史上第一位统一中国的皇帝。除了修建长城和焚书坑儒，他的名声如今又有了新的注脚：中国央行借由他建造全国道路系统的方式来解释中国新的货币系统。在8月11日发布的报告中，中国人民银行引用了由秦始皇修路的经验衍生出来的成语“削峰填谷”，称自己以此法管理流动性。

The modernisation of monetary policy is in its own way a monumental project for China. Over the past two decades, the central bank’s conduct of policy had two defining features. It focused on the quantity, not the price, of money. And it relied on inflows of foreign cash to generate new money. Both features are now slowly changing, bringing China closer to the norm in developed markets, an essential transition for an increasingly complex economy.货币政策现代化对中国来说是一项意义深远的工程。过去20年间，中国央行在制定和执行货币政策上有两个关键特征：它注重货币的数量而非价格，并且依赖国外资金流入来创造新的货币。现在这两项特征都在缓慢发生变化，令中国更加接近发达市场的常态。对于一个日益复杂的经济体来说，这是个至关重要的转变。
Start with interest rates. These used to be of secondary importance in China. Regulators instead used quotas to dictate how much banks lent and in effect fixed their deposit and lending rates. This made sense when China was in the early stages of moving away from a planned economy. Crude targets were still needed. But as a bigger, rowdier financial system took shape, these targets became less relevant. With the emergence of a large bond market, myriad non-bank lenders and new investment options for savers, banks now face more competition for deposits and in building up their loan books.先从利率说起。过去它在中国是次要的。监管机构用配额来决定银行提供多少贷款，实际上固定了银行的存款和贷款利率。在中国脱离计划经济的早期，这种做法可以理解，因为仍然需要有粗略的目标。但随着规模更大、更纷繁复杂的金融体系成形，这些目标变得不那么重要了。随着大型债券市场、无数非银行贷款机构和储户的投资新选择出现，现在银行在吸收存款和发放贷款上都面临更多竞争。

Their importance has been clear over the past two years as capital outflows eroded the value of China’s foreign-exchange reserves. This placed pressure on domestic liquidity, since China had relied on cash inflows to generate money growth (issuing new yuan to buy up the dollars streaming in). After initial hiccups, the central bank more than made up for the loss of dollars at home by using its various tools (see chart 2). As a result, it has been better able to manage cash levels on a daily basis. High volatility in money-market rates, once a regular occurrence, has all but vanished, hence the central bank’s conceit that, in a Qin-like manner, it has shaved off mountain peaks and filled valleys.过去两年，由于资本外流削弱了中国的外汇储备，这些工具的重要性清晰地显现出来。资本外流给国内流动性带来了压力，因为中国过去依赖资金流入创造货币增长（发行新的人民币以买进流入的美元）。在经历初期的小问题之后，央行通过使用各种工具出色地弥补了国内美元的流失（见图表2），由此得以更好地管理了每日现金水平。货币市场利率的高波动性曾经是常态，现在几乎已经消失，因此央行认为，正如秦朝修路时那样，它已经做到了削峰填谷。

Nevertheless, both policy shifts are works in progress. With state-owned banks and companies still counting on government support in the event of trouble, interest rates have less signalling value than in a freer market. The central bank, for its part, continues to use administrative controls to influence lenders. And its success in managing liquidity has been greatly helped by China’s tightened grip on its capital account over the past year. Without that, money growth at home might have fuelled more capital outflows. It is, in other words, a gradual approach to reform, in which sense the invocation of China’s first emperor is unfortunate. His rule was transformative but violent and short-lived. Slower monetary-policy shifts, in contrast, have much to recommend them.然而，两种政策转变都在进行之中。由于国有的银行和企业在遇到麻烦时仍指望政府的支持，相比自由市场，利率的风向标作用较小。央行自身仍在继续利用行政控制来影响银行。过去一年中国收紧了对资本账户的控制，为央行在流动性管理上的成功提供了极大助力。如果没有这一点，国内的货币增长可能会促发更多的资本外流。换句话说，这是一种渐进的改革方式，就这一点而言，中国的第一位皇帝并不成功。他的统治翻天覆地，但却暴力且短暂。相比之下，缓慢的货币政策转变有很多可取之处。