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level 13
2017年08月09日 09点08分 1
level 13
-Statistical Significance: We will look at the t-tests or p-values to determine whether or not to reject the null hypothesis (which says that the parameter is equal to 0) at a certain level of significance.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 2
level 13
-Economic significance: we will look at the magnitude and the sign of the estimated coefficient. If the number turns out to be so small, that x variable does not really affect y.
In short, an coefficient isstatistically significant when it is quite precisely estimated,andeconomically significant when it is important.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 4
level 13
In the example above, all the parameters are statistically significant (the t-ratios are 8.81, 9.91, 2.26, 3.36, which is reasonable for us the reject the null hypothesis in a significance test).
However, the magnitude of “age” (measured in years) is really small (.0046911), which means a year increase in age will increase the number of cars owned by .0046911, on average, all else equal.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 5
level 13
In other words, all else equal, on average, in order to the number of cars owned to increase by 1, age must increase by over 200 years (=1/.0046911), which does not sound realistic!!
2017年08月09日 09点08分 6
level 13
In conclusion, even though the estimated coefficient of “age” is statistically significant, it is NOT economically significant.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 7
level 13
Note: The magnitude of “inctotal” is a small number too (.0000691), but it makes some sense. That means all else equal, a dollar increase in total income will increase the number of cars owed by .0000691, on average.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 8
level 13
Note: The magnitude of “inctotal” is a small number too (.0000691), but it makes some sense. That means all else equal, a dollar increase in total income will increase the number of cars owed by .0000691, on average. That sounds possible, since if you had an extra dollar per year, you would not think of buying another car!! Well, it still does not make good sense to you, let’s put it this way: all else equal, on average, in order for a person to own another car, his/her annual income needs to increase by about $14,471 (=1/.0000691). Sounds reasonable, right? Therefore, the estimated coefficient of “inctotal” is both statistically and economically significant.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 9
level 13
We need to watch out for the units as well. A small number doesn’t necessarily imply an economic insignificance.
2017年08月09日 09点08分 10
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