Free exchange
How to be wrong
To err is human. Society is suffering from an inability to acknowledge as much
自由交流
如何犯错
人孰无过，但我们的社会却因为不能认识到这一点而受损
A NEWSPAPER cannot publish for 174 years without some mistakes. This one has made its share. We thought Britain was safe in the European exchange-rate mechanism just weeks before it crashed out; we opined, in 1997, that Indonesia was well placed to avoid financial crisis; we noted in 1999 that oil, at $10 per barrel, might well reach $5, almost perfectly timing the bottom of the market; and in 2003 we supported the invasion of Iraq. For individuals, like publications, errors are painful—particularly now, when the digital evidence of failure is both accessible and indelible. But they are also inevitable. The trick, then, is to err well: to recognise mistakes and learn from them. Worryingly, humanity may be getting worse at owning up to its goofs.
没有哪份报纸能发行174年而从不出错，《经济学人》也不例外。我们曾认为英国在欧洲汇率机制中是安全的，结果没过几周它就遭遇惨败，黯然退出该机制；1997年我们认为印度尼西亚有足够能力避免金融危机；1999年石油每桶10美元时，我们写到油价很可能会跌到每桶5美元，但在几乎同一时间，油价触底；2003年我们还曾支持入侵伊拉克。和出版物一样，个人犯错也很痛苦，特别是现在，错误都会留下数字证据，既无从掩藏又无法抹除。但错误也是不可避免的，所以关键在于要“会”犯错：认识到错误并从中吸取经验。令人担忧的是，人类可能会越来越不会承认错误。

Few enjoy the feeling of being caught out in an error. But real trouble starts when the desire to avoid a reckoning leads to a refusal to grapple with contrary evidence. Economists often assume that people are rational. Faced with a new fact, rational actors should update their view of the world in order to take better decisions in future. Yet years of economic research illuminate the ways in which human cognition veers from rationality. Studies confirm what is obvious from experience: people frequently disregard information that conflicts with their view of the world.
很少有人喜欢犯错被抓现行的感觉。但是，如果一心想要避免惩罚，以致于拒绝去面对相反的事实，真正的麻烦就来了。经济学家通常都假定人是理性的，面对新的事实，理性的人应该更新自己的世界观，好在今后做出更好的决定。然而，多年的经济研究表明，人类认知存在偏离理性的情况。研究证实了经验中显而易见的情况：人们经常会无视与自己的世界观相左的信息。
Why should that be? Last year Roland Bénabou, of Princeton, and Jean Tirole, of the Toulouse School of Economics, presented a framework for thinking about the problem. In many ways, beliefs are like other economic goods. People spend time and resources building them, and derive value from them. Some beliefs are like consumption goods: a passion for conservation can make its owner feel good, and is a public part of his identity, like fashion. Other beliefs provide value by shaping behaviour. The conviction that one is a good salesman may help generate the confidence needed to close sales; religious asceticism can help one avoid unhealthy habits.
为什么会这样呢？去年，普林斯顿大学的罗兰·贝纳布（Roland Bénabou）和图卢兹经济学院（Toulouse School of Economics）的让·蒂罗（Jean Tirole）提出了一个思考此问题的框架。在许多方面，信念就像其他经济产品一样。人们花费时间和资源制造信念，并从中获得价值。有些信念就如同消费品：对环境保护的热情可以让一个人感觉良好，这种热情和时尚一样，是他个人身份塑造中对外展示的一面。其他信念通过塑造行为来提供价值，比如深信自己是一名优秀的推销员可能有助于建立信心，做成生意；又比如宗教禁欲主义可以帮助人避免不健康的习惯。

I don’t want to be right
Public statements of regret are risky in a rigidly polarised world. Admissions of error both provide propaganda for ideological opponents and annoy fellow-travellers. Some economists used to seethe when members of the guild acknowledged that trade liberalisation could yield costs as well as benefits—though economic models had always allowed for this. In the long run, such self-censorship probably eroded trust in economists’ arguments more than it built support for trade. It is rarely in the interest of those in the right to pretend that they are never wrong.
无需永远正确
在分化严重的世界中，公开表示后悔是有风险的。承认错误既落了敌对者的口实，又会惹恼同一阵营的人。一些经济学家曾在其他同行承认贸易自由化既有利益又有代价时怒火中烧，尽管经济模型一直都考虑到了这种情况。从长远来看，相比为自由贸易争取到更多的支持，这种自我审查可能会更多地削弱人们对经济学家观点的信任。有理的一方假装自己永不会犯错，这于他们自身无益。

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