一层
镇楼

THE CURIOUS CAPITALIST
THE MARKETS IN THE AGE OF TRUMP
By Rana Foroohar
好奇资本家
特朗普时代的市场
文/拉纳·福鲁哈尔
As They sAy in The mArkeTs, pAsT performAnce is no guarantee of future returns. Donald Trump’s surprise presidential victory has turned the markets, which have run at record highs for the past few years, upside down, with precipitous drops on election night in global stocks and bonds, and a flight to safety assets like gold. That’s actually not surprising. Not only have investors long feared the economic implications of a Trump presidency, but markets never like the uncertainty of a new President (the S&P 500 fell 5% when Barack Obama was elected in 2008, for example). A few days after an election, they usually rebound (indeed, just a few hours after the Trump victory, markets were already gaining back a bit of what they’ve lost). Longer term, they tend to respond more to fundamental economic factors rather than politics.
市场中流行这样一句老话，过去的表现并不代表未来的表现。过去几年来，市场一直保持高位运行，唐纳德·特朗普的意外当选颠覆性地改变了市场形势，就在当选之夜，全球股票和债券市场急剧下滑，众多投资者纷纷将资金转移至黄金等安全资产。这实在不足为奇。长期以来，投资者对特朗普执政带来的经济影响表示担忧，不光如此，市场本身也不欢迎新总统上任带来的不确定性因素（譬如，2008年巴拉克·奥巴马当选时，标普500指数下降了5%）。选举后数日，通常会出现反弹（的确，仅在特朗普成功当选后数小时，市场情况已经有所恢复）。从更长远的角度看，市场对重大经济因素的反应比对政治的反应更为强烈。

But these are not typical times, and our economic future is deeply entangled with politics. A Trump presidency fundamentally challenges the future of globalization and status quo capitalism. Indeed, the fact that Trump grabbed an unexpected share of the minority vote, as well as some college-educated women, speaks to the fact that economic anxiety is about more than just income levels. It’s about the fact that a large percentage of the population—not just factory workers in Michigan or Ohio—feels that we have a rigged economic system that disproportionately benefits the U.S. and global elite. And of course, no one epitomized that elite more than the Clintons.
但情况并非总是如此，经济前景与政治纠缠不休。特朗普执政从根本上挑战了全球化的未来和资本主义的现状。特朗普意外揽获众多少数派以及受过高等教育女性的选票，这一事实实际上表明经济焦虑不仅仅关乎收入水平，也关乎这样一个事实，即大多数美国人——不仅仅是密歇根州或俄亥俄州的工人们——认为受人操纵的经济体系使得美国和全球精英受益不成比例。当然，没人比克林顿家族更配得上精英的头衔。
In this sense, the Trump victory is quite similar to the U.K.’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union. People aren’t voting for a clear set of policies so much as they are voting against what’s come before. As Allianz chief strategist Mohamed El-Erian put it to me, Trump’s victory is “yet another illustration of the politics of anger, and of the mistrust in the Establishment and expert opinion. It speaks to the stress and strains that Western economies are experiencing in the aftermath of too many years of low and noninclusive growth. The result is a higher likelihood of improbables becoming reality, be they economic, financial, institutional or political.”
从这种意义上而言，特朗普的胜利与英国脱欧投票两者极为相似。与其说民众是在投票支持一系列明确的政策，倒不如说是投票反对先前的政策。正如安联集团（Allianz）首席战略师穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）所言，特朗普的胜利“不过再次证明了愤怒政治，证明了民众对当权派和专家意见的不信任”。这也表明在低迷、非包容性经济增长的余波里，西方经济体正面临巨大压力。基于其经济、金融、体制或政治等情况，这种情况不大可能出现。

So what does that mean for the markets, and the economy? For the next few weeks, you’ll see plenty of—surprise!—volatility. The markets, which have never been great at predicting populism since traders are mainly elites, will be up and down depending on how Trump communicates. If we see more of the relatively balanced tone of his acceptance speech, we’ll see gains. If you hear populist rhetoric around trade, immigration and so on, the markets will dip. The uncertainty investors feel will magnify any small bit of bad news. If the next round of job numbers comes in soft, or Chinese manufacturing figures look weak, or it seems as though Italian banks might blow up, the markets will react more strongly than they have previously. So buckle up, as it will be a bumpy few weeks.
那么，这对市场、对经济而言意味着什么呢？接下来几周，就请拭目以待吧！——波动。由于券商大多为精英，市场向来不擅长预测平民主义，市场如何波动将取决于特朗普如何传达信息。如果我们更关注的是特朗普受命演说相对舒缓的语调，就会认为市场会出现上涨的态势。如果你听到的是与贸易、移民相关的平民主义论调，那么就会认为市场会下滑。投资商察觉到的不确定性因素会将哪怕一点点坏消息放大。如果下一轮就业机会依旧稀缺，或是中国制造业呈现低迷态势，抑或是意大利银行看起来随时都要爆发危机，市场的反应都会比以往更剧烈。因此，请系好安全带吧，接下来几周道路将会很颠簸哦。

TRUMP ECONOMY
4.0% Rate of U.S. economic growth promised by Trump, far above the 1.5% average annual GDP growth rate of the past decade.
0.9% The average drop since 1928 in the S&P 500 index the day after a presidential election; stock futures plunged as Trump won key states, but the S&P was up 0.7% by noon the next day.
川普经济学
0.4%：特朗普许诺的美国经济增长率，这一数值远高于过去十年来美国1.5%年均GDP。
0.9%：1928年以来标普500指数在大选后平均降幅；特朗普赢得关键州选票后股票期货急剧下降，但次日中午标普指数又上涨0.7%。
译者为现南京大学
#翻译硕士#
在读生，这篇稿件的价格是150/千原文字（中介抽成15%）

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