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文章出处http://queencityhoops.com/blog/15-16-hornets-player-forecast-nicolas-batum/
Position: Small-Forward
Height: 6’8〃
Weight: 200 lbs.
The Hornets acted fast-and-furious prior to the NBA Draft this past June. Step one was to rid themselves of problem child Lance Stephenson, and step two, in slightly more surprising fashion, was to trade for the versatile 26-year-old small forward Nicolas Batum. Batum cost Charlotte last year’s lottery pick and rookie contract Noah Vonleh, which seems like a reach. It appears to be even more of a gamble when you factor in that Batum only has one year remaining on his deal, so there’s a chance the Hornets might have just traded 19-year-old rookie deal for a one year rental. Either way, Batum is a better player than Vonleh today and moves the needle for the Hornets in the short-term.
Reasons for Optimism:
Simply put, the trade for Nic Batum should make Charlotte a more versatile team on both ends of the floor right away. He will start at shooting guard on day one and Batum can play two, maybe three, positions on the offensive end. He and MKG are also interchangeable defensively, as they can probably guard six-to-seven different positions on the floor, combined. That’s exciting. Want to taste something else exciting? Nic Batum led the league in distance covered in ’13-’14 at 216 miles, according to NBA.com SportVU Player Tracking. Effort won’t be a problem for Batum on defense, and although he hasn’t been great at guarding his position, he has been valuable against smaller ball handlers – wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Clifford use him in this role defensively at the end of games.
Last season was easily the most disappointing of Batum’s career as his shooting percentages, rebounding rate and usage rate all dropped rather drastically. That said, just a year prior to that is when it appeared that the French sensation had turned a corner to be one of the savvier three-tool players in the league.
’13-’14 stats: 13 PPG, 5.1 APG, 7.5 RPG, 46.5 FG%, 36.1 3FG%.
History suggest that Batum isn’t injury prone. He’s only missed eleven games in the past three seasons and has also notched a start in 89% of his 481 games played throughout his seven year career. This should add some stability to a lineup that has seen an array of injuries plague the starting lineup since the ’13-’14 playoffs began.
Reasons for Pessimism:
We’ll start with the obvious. The Hornets only have one guaranteed year with Batum, so the team is banking on him being a good fit, returning to his ’13-’14 form and then resigning him next summer. That’s asking a lot to go right, but such is a gamble that small market franchises need to make from time to time.
For the majority of his career, Batum has been a generic floor spacer on the offensive end. Two years ago Portland coach Terry Stotts opened up the floor for Batum to become more of a creator with the ball and it showed small signs of success. Rest assured Clifford will continue with this experiment because once you move past ball dominant guards Kemba and J-Lin, Charlotte is thin on players who can actually pass and shoot out of a pick and roll plays. And the Hornets are going to run the PnR set into the ground this season – you can take that to the bank. Batum will have to be able to create with the ball more than he’s likely comfortable with due to the fact that he’s no longer on a team with a number one, two and three scoring options in front of him.
The vast majority of the question marks exist on the offensive end for Batum. He’ll be versatile because he consistently hits three statistical categories, even in the bad years, but Batum must remember how to score the ball if this trade is going to be worth it.
Numbers To Know:
Batum is a 36% three-point shooter over his career, but that number dipped to a career low 32.4% clip last season. If you split the difference between those two then it looks a little better but it’s not moving the needle enough to make this trade worth it. Batum needs to find a way to rediscover the career average from behind the arc because not only does that open up the floor for him to be more of a slasher but it completely changes the dynamic of the Hornets offense.
Defenses will sag in deep against the Hornets because that’s what you do against teams that have a low post ball monster surrounded by a herd of players who can’t stroke it. Batum can save the Hornets from this fate if he’s able to be creative with his movement off the ball and can get out of the gates with some momentum shooting the ball this season – a crucial factor in the reasoning behind bringing him to Charlotte.
’15-’16 Forecast:
He improves on his ’14-’15 shooting numbers. Batum scores 12.5 PPG, shooting 43% from the field and somewhat reinvents the outside shot to raise the long-range clip to 34%. And that’s encouraging but because Batum is so relied on offensively compared to his last home, the slight improvements don’t unlock the Hornets offense. The team essentially finds themselves with the same frustrating problems when searching for consistent scoring.
Defensively, Batum will be a dynamic poker chip for Clifford to use next to MKG. Occasionally, you’ll see him defending the point guard at the end of games with MKG on the best wing option and Kemba/Lin being hidden on the corner man. It’s hard to foresee a scenario where the Hornets aren’t better defensively with Batum sharing the floor with MKG.
Charlotte and the rest of the league enter next summer trying to put fair value on a 27-year-old dynamic wing player who has seemingly never reached his full potential. Do the Hornets panic and overpay to resign him, or does MJ decide to wipe the slate clean and start over? Again. Nic Batum’s production this season will play a large role in that decision.