[Dark Forest] [Spoilers] Holes in the Dark Forest Theory?
Overall, I enjoyed the book. After thinking about it, however, I came up with some potential problems with the plot and with the dark forest theory in general, which is heavily reliant on a Hobbesian theory of the state of nature and “realist” international relations theory.
Potential plot holes:
There was no need for Lou Ji’s plan to be secret. He could have revealed his ideas about the dark forest at any time and the Trisolarans and the ETO could not have altered his plan to use it as threat up until the time that the first Trisolaran probe reached the Earth. Revealing the plan would have made Lou Ji’s life better; with the knowledge out, there would be no reason for the ETO to attempt to assassinate him. He did need secrecy in the final portion of the book after the Trisolaran probe blocked using the Sun as a communicator, but if he had just revealed his plan from the beginning, Earth’s government could have used the threat of mutually assured destruction at more opportune times. It’s possible that people might have reacted against Lou Ji’s plan the same way they did against Rey’s plan, but I doubt it. Rey’s plan was secret; that’s why it was dangerous. If Lou Ji revealed his strategy, I doubt there would be public backlash. It would have been just like the strategy of mutually assured destruction that played out during the Cold War, which the majority of the First World’s population did not heavily protest.
For that matter, Rey’s plan did not need to be secret either. His threat to destroy the solar system only works if your intent is broadcast, not hidden. I also thought that Rey’s plan would probably have the same effect if he just exploded all the bombs on Earth and made the planet unlivable. The Trisolarans might be able to terraform the planet back to livable conditions, but at least there is some uncertainty there, whereas he knew he probably didn’t have enough bombs to change Mercury’s orbit. I also posted Rey’s plan on r/cosmology and it seemed like people there didn’t think his plan would have any effect on the sun.
If sophons can interact with quantum particles, and if, as revealed in the book, the mind is dependent on quantum-level interactions, then theoretically Trisolarans should be able to mess with or manipulate the human mind. They had a much easier way to control humans.
Lou Ji’s plan depended on aliens deciding to destroy his cursed star. But if the Dark Forest theory is correct, it is just as likely that those aliens would have decided to colonize that star system and take its resources, because that would leave them in a better position to survive the “state of nature” that is the dark forest. Conquest rather than destruction would then have provided Earth with no confirmation of the dark forest theory. This is not so much a plot hole, as it is an incredible reliance on luck on the part of Lou Ji. He should have at least thought of this possibility, and prepared contingency plans.
Lou Ji’s plan was also dependent on there being super-fast travel. The star that Lou Ji “cursed” was eliminated very quickly after Lou Ji’s message of the star’s coordinates was received by nearby star systems. Again, he was lucky that there was a neighboring, sufficiently advanced civ that received the message and was able to deploy so quickly against that star. But that raises another question: Any civ that is so advanced that they have such speed and star-destroying technology could probably just monitor their more primitive neighbors with sophons, and only strike if that civ’s tech could possibly challenge the more advanced civ.
Potential holes in the Dark Forest theory:
This brings me to more general criticisms of the dark forest theory. If alien civs possess sophon tech, they don’t need to destroy other civilizations. They can just prevent those other civs from ever ascending the tech tree; the chain of suspicion gets stopped right there. Makes me think that perhaps in the third book, this option gets explored for creating intergalactic peace.
If sophon tech is readily reachable on the technology tree, then the dark forest is no longer really “dark.” You can know a lot about your neighboring civilizations. You still won’t be able to read their minds. But you will still have a lot of near-instantaneous information about how warlike they are and whether they are peaceful, what their technology level is like, and how you might even try to negotiate with them to form an intergalactic alliance. They are not complete black boxes.
Perhaps the Trisolarans were lucky in unlocking the secrets of sophons, and most civilizations won’t ascend this particular tech tree. That would eliminate some of these potential holes in the dark forest theory and its assumption that other civs have to be black boxes. However, if there were even just a few other alien civs that discovered this technology tree, there would be significant advantages in those civilizations trying to coordinate alliances with amenable neighbors against “rogue” alien civilizations intent only on destruction and conquest. For example, with cooperation, civilizations can ascend the tech tree even faster. This would be the seed for some type of intergalactic organization, rather than intergalactic anarchy. Over the long time frame of the existence of the universe, cosmic sociology should predict that supragalactic organization would emerge rather than anarchy.
Most generally: cosmic sociology as Lou Ji envisions it is impossible without knowing the kind of tech available in the tech tree and the character of civilizations that ascend that tree. There were some Trisolarans who did not want to invade Earth. The decision to invade was made because the Trisolarans knew their system was unviable. But if their system was viable, how would the Trisolarans have acted after hearing knowledge of Earth? The peaceful faction might have won. Domestic politics matter and the assumption of international relations that states can be treated as black boxes doesn't hold.
So, those are my thoughts. Looking forward to hearing what others thought of the book.

翻译马上来

等着！快点！

等

在线等翻译

。

这是好事，然后外国人也像贴吧一样玩的很嗨，再给三体加一把火

看了三再说，到底是儿童文学

老外明显智商不够啊

Potential holes in the Dark Forest theory:
潜在的黑森漏洞：
This brings me to more general criticisms of the dark forest theory. If alien civs possess sophon tech, they don’t need to destroy other civilizations. They can just prevent those other civs from ever ascending the tech tree; the chain of suspicion gets stopped right there. Makes me think that perhaps in the third book, this option gets explored for creating intergalactic peace.
要是有智子的话，就可以防止别的文明爬科技树，文明的猜疑链就会停止
If sophon tech is readily reachable on the technology tree, then the dark forest is no longer really “dark.” You can know a lot about your neighboring civilizations. You still won’t be able to read their minds. But you will still have a lot of near-instantaneous information about how warlike they are and whether they are peaceful, what their technology level is like, and how you might even try to negotiate with them to form an intergalactic alliance. They are not complete black boxes.
只要点了智子科技树，黑暗森林就不成立了，可以信息交流，看别人
Perhaps the Trisolarans were lucky in unlocking the secrets of sophons, and most civilizations won’t ascend this particular tech tree. That would eliminate some of these potential holes in the dark forest theory and its assumption that other civs have to be black boxes. However, if there were even just a few other alien civs that discovered this technology tree, there would be significant advantages in those civilizations trying to coordinate alliances with amenable neighbors against “rogue” alien civilizations intent only on destruction and conquest. For example, with cooperation, civilizations can ascend the tech tree even faster. This would be the seed for some type of intergalactic organization, rather than intergalactic anarchy. Over the long time frame of the existence of the universe, cosmic sociology should predict that supragalactic organization would emerge rather than anarchy.
也许很多文明没有点智子这种科技树，但是只要有点了的，就会联合起来欺负没有点智子科技树的。然后就合作大发展了，合作还能发展更快。这是星系有序组织的种子，而不是星系乱打一气的无政府主义
Most generally: cosmic sociology as Lou Ji envisions it is impossible without knowing the kind of tech available in the tech tree and the character of civilizations that ascend that tree. There were some Trisolarans who did not want to invade Earth. The decision to invade was made because the Trisolarans knew their system was unviable. But if their system was viable, how would the Trisolarans have acted after hearing knowledge of Earth? The peaceful faction might have won. Domestic politics matter and the assumption of international relations that states can be treated as black boxes doesn't hold.
三体人侵略地球是因为他们星系不稳定，很多其它星系都是稳定的。不用入侵，又有智子的其它文明，国内的和平主义者会胜利。
So, those are my thoughts. Looking forward to hearing what others thought of the book.
这是我的想法，欢迎讨论
我感觉这个作者国际关系理论看多了。。。。。。另外这是个论坛，可以预见会有很多关于黑森的帖子，因为黑森是他们这个月集体读物

黑森破起来，圣母黑起来，三体火起来
反对人类暴...（哔---三体厨已被拖走）

这是美国小学生吗？新手任务的完成质量太差了吧！

我要看后面的跟帖，最好撕起来

智商明显不行

谁说只有我国国民智商不行的？

在没看三的条件下，说的挺有理的，谁去回复一下：答案尽在第三集

还有他们是怎么回帖猜答案的？没有三的情况下…

这种读书会讨论挺好的，成员出于自己的知识体系提出各种想法，这会让三体系列在国外成为现象级。

先不说具体细节，光看第一段从态度和可信度上就已经已经超越本吧99%的破黑森帖子了。