Not for the first time and certainly not for the last,the initial dollar reaction to the US employment report failed to be sustained through the remainder of the trading session on Friday.This was most evident on EURUSD,with the initial move down below the 1.18 level being reversed within 90 minutes of the release to put it above the 1.1860 level once the Asian session was underway today.The broader reversal of dollar strength last week was also in evidence again the Aussie and yen,with USDJPY starting the week not far off the lows made last week just above the 118.00 level.The parallels with last year are fairly strong,with seemingly the whole world bullish the dollar,a trade that did not start to bear fruit until the latter half of July.We continue to take a more constructive view of the dollar,seeing it higher,but in a far less uniform and linear manner.
不是第一次也肯定不是最后一次，美国就业报告发布后美元一开始的反应没能在周五持续到交易日结束。这个情况在欧元美元上尤其显著，当时这个货币对一开始下探到1.18之下，但是在报告发布九十分钟之内出现逆转，并在亚洲交易期开始后回到了1.1860之上。上周美元强势针对澳元和日元出现的大范围逆转也非常显著，这周一开始美元日元就离开上周的低点不远，在118.00之上。和去年相比差距很大，看起来全世界都在看涨美元，而这次看涨要到七月下旬才可能有结果。我们会持续以建设性眼光来看待美元，看着美元走高，但远不是那种单一且线性的方式。
This week,it is inflation data in the UK tomorrow that it one of the key releases on the majors.The headline rate has been falling and is poised to break below the lower end of the 1%–3%band set by the government.The market looks for a 0.7%headline reading.Elsewhere,retail sales data for the US is seen on Wednesday,together with US CPI inflation on Friday.Beyond FX,the oil price continues to push lower,Brent below the 50 level again this morning and making new lows for the year.
这一周，明天英国发布的通胀数据是关键数据之一。其宏观比例一直在下降，有可能跌到政府设定的1%-3%的关键地带之下。市场预期这个数字会是0.7%。此外，美国的零售数据将在周三发布，还有周五美国的CPI通胀数据。外汇之外，油价还在持续走低。今天上午布伦特原油再次低于50这个水平，并达到今年的新低。