No movie is able to claim frontrunner best picture status--yet.
By Pete Hammond
Awards Editor & Columnist
December 27, 2014 12

然后作者按提名可能性大小给出了有望拿到提名的电影（前五是他觉得基本锁定提名的）
Boyhood【少年时代】
“There are a boatload of movies that might be saying “I coulda been a contender” but are lost and drifting in one of the most wide-open best picture races in memory.”
This indie is clearly the critics darling, swooping up several major—and minor—critics groups awards and nominations from precursor organizations, including a Golden Globe best pic nom. Although the buzz is definitely there, and the majority of pundits who try to predict these things have lined up behind it, there are still many Academy members who haven’t even seen the movie—even though it has been in release since July. This is the kind of small film with a great backstory that could win it all, but often for a movie of this size it is better to sneak up from behind than be the pace horse. And you don’t want to overhype it to the point that it can’t possibly live up to advance word. Still, this IFC Films production is in it for the long haul.
The Imitation Game 【模拟游戏】
This heartbreaking and compelling saga of Alan Turing, pictured top, the genius who cracked the Nazis’ Enigma codes during World War II, looks to be another King’s Speech for The Weinstein Company. Likewise, TWC is playing it steady as it goes. A Golden Globe nom and the Audience Award at Toronto have been the film’s biggest triumphs to date but, like King’s Speech, it might have to wait until the all-important guild awards to really start showing its stuff.
Birdman【鸟人】
Like Boyhood, this Globe-nominated dark comedy is doing very well with the critics groups and has strong support from those I spoke with in the Academy. The story of a washed-up movie superhero trying a comeback on Broadway should—and does—resonate with the elite showbiz crowd, but is it too inside baseball?
The Theory of Everything【万物理论】
Lots of love for this one came out of its Academy screening, but it seems as if most of the Oscar talk revolves around its stars, Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones, rather than the film itself. But this Stephen Hawking biopic definitely hits the right notes and could easily make the nomination cut.
Selma【赛尔玛】
Ever since its smash AFI Fest debut, this story of Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous voting rights march has been received rapturously in screenings and just got a Globe nom. Just a year after the Academy gave production company Plan B’s 12 Years a Slave its best picture prize, are voters ready to give the same team—which now includes Oprah Winfrey—another Oscar for this stirring, and beautifully directed film from Ava DuVernay?

Nightcrawler刚好在作者名单第十位，他在提到《夜行者》时专门强调了其黑马之姿
Nightcrawler
Definitely the most unexpected contender, this film—written and directed by Dan Gilroy—is a dead-on look at local news and what passes for journalistic integrity these days. It also contains a brilliant performance from Jake Gyllenhaal that is a landmark turn for the star.【绝对是本界最让人意外的竞争者，这部电影由丹.吉尔罗伊自编自导，真实再现了当代新闻业现状和业界良心的丧失。杰克.吉伦哈尔在其中无与伦比的表演标志着其里程碑式的华丽转型。】

Whiplash【爆裂鼓手】
Sundance winners don’t always translate into Oscar winners, but this one—about a drumming student and his maniacal teacher, portrayed by supporting actor front-runner J.K. Simmons—hits the mark and makes an indelible impression. Although it is a tiny indie, it’s got a passionate base in the Academy—perhaps enough to put it in a key spot to grab a nomination with the big boys.
Foxcatcher【狐狸捕手】
A sensation at Cannes, this weird, true-life crime story revolving around John DuPont and the Olympic freestyle wrestling squad whose training he funded was a sensation in Cannes’ Official Competition. But has its sheen worn off since then? With tremendous performances across the board, the film could make itself the hot thing again and easily—and deservedly—grab a slot.
A Most Violent Year【至暴之年】
Although distributor A24 Films is tiny, it has a big contender in this 1980s drama, which is reminiscent of something Sidney Lumet might’ve done in his prime. Could writer-director J.C. Chandor—Oscar-nominated for his original screenplay Margin Call—have a winner with this one, which got three wins from the National Board of Review, including best picture? Can the film be the little engine that could in this year’s race?
Bubbling under this top list of contenders could be surprise spoilers in Wild, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Judge, Mr. Turner, Big Eyes, Fury and Inherent Vice. Any one of these could trump a front-runner and re-make this race altogether. It is that kind of year where anything can happen. Ain’t it grand?

镇楼
照好帅的

加油

看不懂英文，我是进来收图的

镇楼图和这个有点像