The main standout overnight is the recovery in the Aussie dollar,which has recovered back above the 0.89 level after the latest data from China brings at least some relief at the margins.The rise in the HSBC manufacturing series was marginal(from 50.2 to 50.5),but was sufficient to take away some of the concerns that were prevalent at the start of the week.We’ve also seen iron ore prices stabilise after what has been a sharp decline so far this month(more than 6%).The Aussie has been the weakest currency on the majors so far this month,so is more vulnerable to corrective activity at this time as soon as the conditions align to allow for this,as they have done overnight.But in the bigger picture,the currency remains vulnerable as the US moves every closer to the point that rates are increased and China continues its growth shift towards more modest headline growth,with a reduced reliance on investment spending.
昨天表现比较显著的是澳元。来自中国的最新数据一定程度上让澳元放松，导致后者恢复到了0.89之上。汇丰银行的制造业数据变动并不明显（从50.2到了50.5），不过也足以消除掉这一周开始就弥漫的担忧情绪。我们还发现，这个月铁矿石价格出现剧烈下跌之后（超过6%）又开始稳定下来。这个月到目前为止澳元都是主要货币中表现最疲软的，面对当前的修正性变动也更加脆弱，就像昨天一样。不过从大局来看，澳元仍然比较脆弱，因为美国的利率在上升，中国的增长则持续走向温和，而且越来越不依赖于投资。
Elsewhere,sterling has continued its tentative recovery in the wake of the Scottish referendum results,which saw the pound weaken after the initial relief rally last Thursday.We’ve also seen the single currency move away from the 1.28 level(1.2816 low see yesterday),as the market has yet to be convinced that the ECB can deliver the balance sheet expansion that the ECB President has promised.This makes the advent of full-blown QE more likely as a meant towards achieving this,but it’s not clear that the ECB has a consensus on the Governing Council to start QE at this point in time.The charts suggest that consolidative activity is likely to continue so long as we hold above yesterday’s low,but the single currency could be vulnerable on a break lower.The provisional PMIs for September(released this morning)have a generally firmer picture,although the German manufacturing series fell to 50.3(from 51.4),with services outperforming.
苏格兰公投的结果让英镑在上个周四暂时的反弹之后出现疲软。而欧元则离开了1.28这恶水平（昨天到达低点1.2816），因为市场还不相信欧洲央行会执行欧洲央行总裁所承诺的资产负债扩张。这也意味着全方位量化宽松的驾临，不过我们还不清楚此时欧洲央行的理事会对于开启量化宽松是否达成了共识。从图表上看，只要能维持在昨天的低点之上，那么情况会逐渐稳定下来；不过如果继续下跌，欧元可能会变得较为脆弱。九月份的临时PMI数据（今天上午发布的）显示出坚挺的迹象，不过德国的制造业数据（从51.4）下跌到了50.3，但服务业数据表现不错。
EUR nudging higher for now
目前欧元走高
The single currency is continuing the recovery seen just above the 1.28 level,with the better than expected PMI data from earlier today supporting the move.It’s also clear that the ECB is going to struggle to expand its balance sheet to the degree that they want in the wake of the first round of bids for the TLTRO.This makes the prospect of QE more likely,but at the same time the impression given by the ECB head in recent comments is that that Governing Council are not there yet in securing agreement.This is why the euro bulls are seeing some short-term opportunity,especially in the wake of the weakness seen over the past few sessions.
欧元在1.28之上在持续恢复，而今天上午发布的PMI数据比预期要好，对欧元的恢复提供了支撑。现在我们清楚地知道欧洲央行将全力扩张其资产负债表，其力度要达到定向长期再融资操作（TLTRO）第一轮投标实现之后。这就让量化宽松的前景明朗起来，不过同时，欧洲央行总裁在近期评论中给人的印象就是理事会还没有形成一致的意见。这也就是欧元多头出现一定量短期机遇的原因，特别是在过去几个交易期中疲软发生之后。