We’ve seen some creeping dollar strength overnight,the main exception being the Aussie which has held above the 0.9250 level for the most part,aided by stronger domestic data showing better than expected business confidence and also house price increases in the second quarter.Whilst we have seen some correction in equities more recently,the dollar has been less inclined to give up some of the recent gains.The dollar index itself has risen in only 4 of the past 20 sessions,Sterling especially looks stretched vs.the dollar,daily RSI indicators at levels that were last seen on a more sustained basis in the early part of 2013.For sterling at least,there may be a partial resolution with the release of the Bank of England Inflation Report tomorrow.Over the past two years,the daily cable range on Inflation Report days has been nearly twice the normal daily average and with the market clearly short sterling,the risk is skewed towards short-covering on anything other than a decidedly dovish outcome.
昨天我们已经发现美元的强势在蔓延，主要的例外就是澳元，大部分时间内维持在0.9250之上；原因就是澳洲国内数据走强，其商业信心数据比预期要好，而第二个季度房价仍在增长。最近我们发现股票方面出现一些修正，而美元似乎不太可能放弃最近的收获。过去二十个交易期中只有四个交易期美元指数是上升的，特别是英镑针对美元看起来收紧，每日相对强弱指数（RSI）则处于2013年初的水平。至少对英镑来说，明天英格兰银行发布通胀报告后会得到一部分解脱。过去两年之中，通胀报告发布日英镑美元的每日变动范围几乎时日常均值的两倍，而市场也很明显地做空英镑；风险显然来自任何类型的空头回补行为而不是果断的温和结果。
The other stand-out from overnight activity has been the kiwi,which has weakened towards the 0.8400 level with housing data falling to the soft side and further cementing the view that the RBNZ will be on hold for the remainder of the year after the recent tightening cycle.Looking at the data calendar,there is nothing that is going to shift sentiment dramatically today.The German ZEW reading will be of passing interest at 10:00 GMT.Otherwise,there are no key US releases until retail sales data tomorrow.
昨天脱颖而出的另一货币就是新元，由于房屋数据疲软新元也疲软到了0.8400这个区域。这种情况进一步让人们相信，经过最近几轮收紧之后今年剩下的时间内新西兰央行会有所收敛。查看了以下经济数据日历，今天似乎没有什么事情可以大幅改变市场的情绪了。格林尼治时间10点德国的ZEW数据对我们来说已经没有意思。此外，明天的零售数据发布之前美国就没有关键数据发布了。