T3.6=56KT

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 MAR 2014 Time : 040000 UTC Lat : 9:58:05 N Lon : 149:09:30 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 991.5mb/ 53.0kt Final T# Adj T
# Raw T#
3.4 3.6 3.6 Center Temp : -58.9C Cloud Region Temp : -60.2C Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in LT GRAY Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 57km - Environmental MSLP : 1004mb Satellite Name : MTSAT2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.6 degrees

14点中央应该升强热了，风力25-28M/秒

毫无卷眼

发展的还算不错，隐约要开眼的样子。强热没问题

T3.2

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 02 MAR 2014 Time : 051500 UTC Lat : 10:03:05 N Lon : 149:06:20 E CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.4 / 991.4mb/ 53.0kt Final T# Adj T
# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.2 Center Temp : -54.0C Cloud Region Temp : -54.4C Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in LT GRAY Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.84 ARC in LT GRAY at Lat: 10:51:00 N Lon: 148:18:00 E Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 57km - Environmental MSLP : 1004mb Satellite Name : MTSAT2 Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.7 degrees

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, BASED ON THE
CDO FEATURE AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

WTPQ20 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1403 FAXAI (1403)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 09.3N 148.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 030600UTC 11.3N 148.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 040600UTC 16.4N 149.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 050600UTC 20.8N 152.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
jma: 40kt

03W FAXAI 140302 0600 9.4N 148.6E WPAC 50 985

EC10天后远洋又一货

WTPQ20 BABJ 020600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS FAXAI 1403 (1403) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC
00HR 9.5N 148.7E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS 250KM
P12HR N 8KM/H
P+24HR 12.3N 148.6E 985HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 17.0N 149.4E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 22.1N 153.7E 985HPA 25M/S
P+96HR 25.8N 161.8E 990HPA 20M/S=

涡度好圆

TPPN10 PGTW 020623
A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI)
B. 02/0532Z
C. 9.3N
D. 148.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .55 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE RAPP

目前法茜维持CCC，在强风切下继续保持裸露状态，北部干冷高压不断制造干冷气流南下低纬使其强度迟迟不得上升，且也因此产生强风切，高反不够成熟，无法抵挡风切，跨赤道气流依然较弱，核心对流较少，也因此无法爆发，未来虽然北部高压减弱东移，但西边赤反依然会与西风作用产生风切，这个问题会维持，增强要等到明天引导气流明显之后，目前的情况不利于加强，上望强热，25-28m/s