Tonight’s game is a tough one to figure out. Both teams have been a bit up and down on their way to identical 3-2 records. I should like the home underdog in a Monday night divisional matchup, but I just don’t trust the Jaguars for some reason. I’m also not inclined to lay the points on the road with the Titans. The trends don’t really favor either side. Tennessee is 1-10 against the spread (ATS) vs. a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday night games and only 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games.
So that leaves us to play the Over/Under, with the total set at 45. At first glance, you could picture these teams playing a 13-10 or 17-14 game that would stay under the total. But the Jags are giving up 27 points per game,http://www.sale-herveleger.com/blog/archives/1031, so Chris Johnson and Vince Young should be able to get some points on the board and Maurice Jones-Drew will likely have just enough success to keep Jacksonville in this game. Both QB’s could be prone to a pick-6 and maybe a special teams score will add to the mix as this one goes over the total.