贴吧用户_0G2QM2C -
关注数: 10 粉丝数: 231 发帖数: 1,564 关注贴吧数: 28
是时候带一波节奏了,M神的更新来了 RStars vs [LGD.int] (BO2) - D2L Odds: 26/74, My odds: 70/30 Last time they were supposed to face each other, 357 (aka QQQ) had a fever and Rising Stars had to forfeit the match. I had my odds at 75/25 there and it's roughly the same for this match. LGD.Int have been strong since they stopped picking non-Black heroes (Pudge, Ursa, etc.) and just giving him easy hard carries (Luna, AM, LD). LGD.Int give good teams like IG a run for their money and managed to upset TongFu 2-0 less than a week ago. They are fairly consistent against weaker teams IF they draft well. Rising Stars is still very weak because CTY generally has poor decision making skills past the laning phase, but they did take a game off of Vici and TongFu recently (still lost both series 2-1 though). If this were a BO3 I would consider betting on RStars, but since it's a BO2 I feel comfortable putting my rares on LGD.Int because they'd have to lose two straight. In my opinion, Rising Stars is too inconsistent to win two in a row versus LGD.Int >30% of the time. [IG] vs TongFu (BO2) - D2L Odds: 70/30, My odds: 66/37 IG somewhat remind me of Na'Vi now. When they are hot, they just demolish and leave you wondering why you would ever bet against them. When they are losing, they are wandering around doing strange things as if they haven't played in a week and sometimes pick strange heroes. Luckily, they're in a hot streak now after absolutely dominating Vici 2-0. Tongfu were hot in late october, cold in early november, and are starting to warm back up. ZSMJ still doesn't exactly mesh too well with the team and until he improves his chemistry with his teammates, he is still a liability. Odds are slightly favored towards IG, but it being a BO2 I feel safe bettiing on IG. Again, I feel that there is <30% chance that TongFu will 2-0 IG. Awake vs FD* (BO1) - D2L Odds: 49/51, Godz's odds: 35/65 I know nothing of SEA Dota and will not claim to. [10:48:54 PM] Ben Wu: know anything about this FD vs awake matchup? i know fd is weak without meracle but i have no clue about either really [10:48:59 PM] Ben Wu: looking for your advice [11:00:14 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: hmm [11:00:20 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: 65:35 [11:00:21 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: fd favored [11:00:22 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: or so [11:00:29 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: havnt seen awake in ages dunno their current roster though [11:02:45 PM] Ben Wu: are they still good without meracle? [11:08:24 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: not rlly [11:08:27 PM] David "GoDz" Parker: its a dicey matchup Purely trusting Godz's knowledge here in this coinflip of a matchup. Na'Vi vs VP (BO3) - D2L Odds: 72/28, My odds: 70/30 This flippin' matchup again. Blowyourbrain on carry venge? Bet on Na'Vi. Dendi Magnus? Bet on VP. LoH anything other than DS? Bet on Na'Vi. XBOCT carry BH? Bet on VP. Who knows whether or not Na'Vi and/or VP will bring their A-game. I'll present you the facts and you can use these facts to your benefit. Na'Vi went 1-1 yesterday with an EG that played very well. Na'Vi lost 0-1 vs VP in a game that just snowballed out of control from an atrocious early game, although Na'Vi did manage to hang in there quite well even though morphling got out of control. Whether it be from lack of sleep, poor drafting, Na'Vi have been underperforming lately. VP were up early in the game vs Liquid yesterday but VP's mid-game decision making is very poor and they managed to lose after a solid lead. Sometimes VP's drafts are very questionable (silencer yesterday, carry venge the other day) but sometimes they use unconventional heroes to great effect (Disruptor, Shadow Shaman). It's a BO3 and it's still a groupstage match. I'm leaning towards Na'Vi because VP doesn't often upset large favorites in BO3's May just not bet this one. VP vs EG* - D2L Odds: 49/51, My odds: 44/56 At these odds, I would bet on EG but they have had connection issues so I'm not sure if this match will even be played. EG have been looking very strong recently, and I'll wait on the Na'Vi VP result to bet on this one. This is the first time this has probably been said, but EG is by far the more consistent team in this matchup. They seem to have stepped in stride with Fear back in the carry role. EG has their off games now and then, but the throw potential is almost nonexistant and their off-games are few and far between.
趁M神还没跟新,我先带一波节奏吧 [DK] vs WPC-A – BO2 – D2L Odds: 85/15 – My odds: 92/8 [aka no chance] DK’s performance in both NEST and ACE is poor. 0-2 to LGD (11th), twice 0-1 to Tongfu (both 8th), 0-1 to VG. They 2-0’d Rstars, 1-1’d RSnake once and 1-0’d them twice. WPC-A however hasn’t won a single game in any of the BO2’s, even when they have good early game they neither have the skill nor the experience to beat the other teams in the ACE league. 4 for 0.4 is poor ROI; out of a personal rule I avoid such bets almost completely, but with WPCA I’m willing to take the plunge. Don’t think there will be another RoX.KIS. [LGD.cn] vs VG – BO2 – D2L Odds: 27/73 – My odds: 31/69 LGD.cn has only dropped 1 game 0-2 vs IG (Oct 17th) in their last 20 matches, with 2 draws vs DK and TongFu. Realize how impressive this is.VG has been doing amazing as well, but it is hard to anticipate coming performance considering the drama around Tutu and how that impacts morale. VG were on a 12 game streak (except a 1-1 vs DK on Oct 25th), but failed (1-2 and 0-2 vs IG, 1-1 and 1-2 vs TongFu) right as the drama around Tutu happened. This does not seem like coincidence to me and makes me think VG are in a bad frame of mind. According to ACE league rules VG are not allowed to use Sylar in ACE as Sylar has played for RStars in ACE. This means VG will use an as of yet unknown standin (strongly rumored to be sydm). The assumption that morale is relatively low in VG, and mainly a 1-position standin being a handicap explain my odds. The D2L odds are a little bit harsh all things considered, but the fact remains that LGD.cn is currently the most consistently strong team in China. 4 for 1.2 is poor ROI. I will most likely place 2 and hope for RNG. VP vs [Na’Vi] – BO1 – D2L Odds: 25/75 – My odds: 22/78 Na’Vi raped VP in the Dreamleague on the 6th, 24-4. During the league, VP has lost to [A] twice, Fnatic and Liquid once. They’ve beat EG but this was still with Jeyo on 1-pos instead of Fear now (makes a huge difference for EG imo) and Fnatic yesterday, handily as well. Na’Vi has done so-so and lost to Alliance, Fnatic (twice), beating Liquid, EG and VP once. In the current standings of 6 teams each playing 10 games (5 opponents twice), Na’Vi is 4th with 3-3 and VP 6th with 1-5; only the top 4 teams will advance to playoffs. VP has been improving, but still make a lot of personal mistakes to the extent where betting on them is super risky, elevated by the BO1 format. I think Na’Vi would need to do troll picks and VP make very few mistakes (rare) for VP to win today. I will update this with my bet later due to rates/odds shifting. At current rates of 1 solid rare for 3 I will bet 3 on Na’Vi. [Na’Vi] vs EG – BO1 – D2L Odds: 68/32 – My odds: 57/43 EG did much, much better yesterday considering they had to play about 4/5 games with close to no sleep. I was very impressed with their performance all across. They had major internet issues and had to bow out of the 3rd game vs Na’Vi. This game was forfeited by D2L admins but Na’Vi were manly enough to reschedule it. In the current standings both have 7 points but Na’Vi is at 3 wins and EG at 2 (EG simply took more teams to 3 games, that’s why they have the same points). This is the 2nd final game for both teams (Na’Vi vs VP tomorrow, EG vs Fnatic on Sunday) so it is extremely important to both to win this. I think EG are very strong with Fear now on the 1-pos and Jeyo playing support, and the 68/32 odds do not take this into account: they’re off. I will update this later with my bet due to rates/odds shifting. With current odds being too skewed to Na’Vi and returns of 0.9 for 2/1.8 for 4 vs 1 for 2.2 on EG I feel much more comfortable to risk 1 on EG than putting multiple rares on Na’Vi. I might just even yolo. [Liquid] vs VP – BO1 – D2L Odds: 72/28 – My odds: 67/33 Take the analysis of VP above. These two teams faced off yesterday with Liq 2-0’ing VP. Game 1 was long and close, Liquid should have been able to close the game much earlier than they did considering their draft; VP had good pickoffs on qojqva. VP had a good early game in game 2 but let qojqva’s Durid get way too big and had no chance after that. Liquid also 1-0’d VP in the earlier Dreamleague game on the 7th, VP played well but Liquid had very efficient carries. Altogether, Liquid has been improving since 6.79 got out, despite dropping a hand of painful games (Korea oh, Korea), and are now on a 6 game winning streak (EG > Dignitas > Na’Vi > EG > Fnatic > VP). VP still look a little weak. My main gripe with them during their games is that (next to personal mistakes) they rotate and move around a lot and aren’t efficient at doing it, so regardless of getting towers and kills they’re usually behind on the net worth. I expect blowyourbrain to join and think they need more time as a team. The odds are slightly too skewed to Liquid, but I feel comfortable to bet on them. I will update this later with my bet due to rates/odds shifting and seeing how VP perform vs Na’Vi. With current odds/rates at 0.4 per 1 rare for Liquid I will place 3 for 1.2 or 1 for 0.4. VP vs [EG] – BO1 – D2L Odds: 44/56 – My odds: 38/62 A lot of this bet depends on the outcomes of earlier games and the performance of the teams concerned: EG vs Na’Vi and VP vs Na’Vi and Liquid. If EG win against Na’Vi, I will definitely bet on them as this is their big chance to make it to the playoffs. VP is already out. If they however lose against Na’Vi I will bet against them here since they won’t have a chance of making it to the playoffs any longer and morale will likely be a bit low. Go with my basic team analysis above. EG look much stronger due to making much fewer mistakes and generally being much more efficient at finding farm and I feel they have greater awareness. It helps that the odds are off. I guess people expect both teams to throw. I will update this later with my bet due to rates/odds shifting and seeing how teams perform. With current odds/rates at 3.1 for 4 on EG I will go with them. 大致意思: DK vs 同福2 别想着同福2能复制ROX LGD.cn vs VG VG在换人风波上会不会受到影响,WPC联赛不允许塞拉代表VG参赛,而老干爹一如既往的是一支中国强队,但考虑的赔率的问题,还是押2个求随机吧。 VP vs NAVI navi在上一次比赛碾压了VP,在这次比赛中VP输给[A]两次,Fnatic 和 Liquid各一次,在这bo1的比赛中,我想navi要通过这轮对VP的比赛上要尽量少失误。在这样3:1的赔率上 我押3个在navi。 navi vs EG eg昨天打了太多的比赛了,我会在之后更新。 [Liquid] vs VP和VP vs [EG]都是之后更新
1 下一页